Italy: 2021 Structured Finance Year-to-Date Snapshot

NPL Market Update del 29 settembre 2021

In 2015 and 2016, Italian banks were forced to write down and offload problem loans as they were challenged by the surge in NPL exposures. Rather than creating a form of asset management company to take ownership of and manage bad debts like other European countries, the Italian market innovatively created an NPL securitization concept – the Garanzia Cartolarizzazione Sofferenze (GACS) scheme – that allows the government to offer a guarantee to a securitized pool to improve pricing dynamics and alleviate some of the pressure from writedown valuations.

Italian banks, supported by the GACS scheme, have made progress in the runup to the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) pandemic. NPLs totalled EUR 203.3 billion at their peak in April 2017, mainly made up of corporate and household exposures. Since then, NPLs have steadily declined to the prepandemic total of EUR 70.9 billion in March 2020. This number briefly rose to EUR 71.2 billion in May 2020, but declined to EUR 52.1 billion in April 2021.

DBRS Morningstar expects NPLs to increase again as special measures are slowly removed and companies artificially supported by pandemic-related government funds are exposed. However, as of June 2021, these had not yet materialised in Italy. For exposures that have been migrated into special servicers and securitisation portfolios, performance has been a challenge, given court closures and the associated complications of selling properties that are secured by NPLs.

#SaveThedate 4 e 5 Ottobbe Forum Banca 2021

Onorato di partecipare come moderatore ai seguenti panel:

• 14:15 - Risk Management: ripensare le architetture e l’organizzazione di governo del rischio in una situazione di instabilità

  • Edoardo Faletti - Head of Enterprise Risk Management BancoBPM

  • Roberto Russo - Chief Risk Officer Banca Progetto

  • Paolo Racca - Technical Account Manager and Pre-Sales Alteryx Partner

• 15:00 - Gli ultimi trend regolatori internazionali/locali e strategici nella gestione dei crediti unlikely to pay e non performing loans. Obiettivo: sostenibilità bancaria

  • Riccardo Marciò - Responsabile Direzione Npl Banco di Desio e della Brianza

  • Vito Ruscigno - Group Head NPE Monitoring & Optimization Intesa Sanpaolo

  • Andrea Pavese - Head of Non Performing Exposures Banca Sella

  • Paola Tondelli - Head of UTP & Turnaround Funds illimity SGR

  • Lucia Liverani - Regional Vice President - Sales nCino

• 16:15 - La trasformazione del mercato NPL in ambito Real Estate

  • Riccardo Marciò - Responsabile Direzione Npl Banco di Desio e della Brianza

  • Tiziana Allievi - Partner MFLaw Studio Legale Mannocchi & Fioretti

  • Giorgio Bosisio - Real Estate Specialist Crédit Agricole

  • Alessandro Clementi - Amministratore Delegato Wibita

  • Claudio Borroni - Head of Business Development BNP Paribas Real Estate

  • Daniele Levi Formiggini - Head of Real Estate Advisory neprix

Banca Ifis presented his new NPL Market Watch with a forecast on NPL Transaction and servicing industry for 2021-23 during the NPL Meeting held in Villa Eba, Como on 24th September.

Highlights from the report:

• NPL transactions in 2021 could reach 34 Bn€, with an incidence of 26% of the secondary market. Operations on UtP portfolios are also growing (11 Bn€). A dynamic market is also expected in the two-year period 2022-2023

• In 2021, the mix of types of NPL portfolios sold sees an increase in the incidence of the Mixed sector.

• NPL dismissions on the Secondary market are mainly on Unsecured and Mixed portfolios, mainly Unsecured, confirming a trend with increasing volumes compared to 2020.

• The seasonality of transactions on NPL portfolios shows a high concentration of transactions closed in the last quarter.

• The average price of Unsecured portfolios increased slightly. The value of the Mixed, Secured and UtP portfolios show a variability conditioned by large transactions and by those assisted by GACS

• The top 10 originators concentrate 64% of the NPE transactions carried out between 2015 and 2021. The volumes acquired by the first three investors amount to 80 Bn€.

• In the first 9 months of 2021, approximately 8 Bn€ of NPL transactions were closed

• The 2021 pipeline incorporates 26 Bn€ of transactions in the NPL sector expected by the end of the year, with 10 Bn€ in an advanced stage of processing.

• The market is enriched by UtP transactions: 1 Bn€ for deals already closed in 2021. More than 10 Bn€ of transactions announced by the end of the year.