IFIS: NPL Market forecast 2021-23
NPL Market Update del 24 settembre 2021
Banca Ifis presented his new NPL Market Watch with a forecast on NPL Transaction and servicing industry for 2021-23 during the NPL Meeting held in Villa Eba, Como on 24th September.
La decima edizione del NPL Meeting si è tenuta venerdì 24 settembre a Villa Erba a Cernobbio (CO) con il claim: «Recovery builders». Nel corso della mattinata, dopo il saluto del Vicepresidente di Banca Ifis Ernesto Fürstenberg Fassio e l’intervento dell’Amministratore Delegato della Banca Frederik Geertman, sono intervenuti sul palco l’economista e professore emerito dell’Institut d’Etudes Politiques de Paris Jean Paul Fitoussi, il Presidente della Commissione Finanze alla Camera Luigi Marattin, di Ida Mercanti, Capo del servizio supervisione bancaria di Banca d’Italia e Massimo Fabiani, Professore Ordinario Università del Molise. Per l’occasione sarà pubblicata la 14esima edizione del report Market Watch NPL.
In 2022-2023 the newly deteriorated flows in bank balance sheets are expected to grow (about € 70 Bn), without however reaching the peak of 2013. The Corporate segment will lead the growth of the deterioration rate.
Danger rate is expected to increase but with flows almost half compared to the absolute value of 2013 peak.
The stock of gross bad loans in bank balance sheets is expected to contract in 2021, bringing the NPE ratio to the target level (5%) required by the ECB. In 2022, the UtP stock will exceed the NPL stock. The incidence on loans will reach 5.9% in 2023.
In prospective terms, banks will record an increase in credit risk highlighted by the increase in loans passed to stage 2 (required by IFRS9), in contrast to the NPL ratio.
In September 2021, the loans still on moratorium are 25% (71 Bn€) of the initial requests, the 77% is referable to corporate.
The decrease in non-performing loans corresponds to a simultaneous recovery of loans, especially on corporate segment since the first months of 2020.
In 2021 first quarter, European non-performing loans amounted to 478 Bn€, down by ~57% when compared to the 2015 peak. European stocks are expected to increase by ~33% in 2022, with a growth rate higher than the one expected for Italy